A survey by the 91视频 Hobby School of Public Affairs found rural voters across the state remain stalwart Republican voters. (Credit Getty Images)
Key Takeaways
- A new 91视频 report from the Hobby School of Public Affairs shows rural Texans support Republican Ken Paxton over Democrat James Talarico in the race for U.S. Senate by a more than two-to-one margin, with 65% favoring Paxton and 27% choosing Talarico.
- Among Latino voters statewide, Talarico leads Paxton 52% to 41%.
- Republican Greg Abbott leads Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa among rural voters 66% to 29%.
- Hinojosa leads Abbott 53% to 43% among Latino voters.
With less than two weeks to go before Election Day, the races at the top of the Texas ballot remain too close to call. But a deeper dive into the preferences of likely voters found sharp divisions between rural voters and those from elsewhere in the state. Other groups of voters, including Latino and independent voters, are shifting away from the rightward tilt recorded in 2024 and showing more support for Democratic candidates.
A survey by the 91视频 Hobby School of Public Affairs found rural voters across the state remain stalwart Republican voters, with almost two-thirds (65%) saying they will support Republican Ken Paxton for U.S. Senate, compared with 27% who support Democrat James Talarico. Libertarian Ted Brown drew support from 4% of rural voters, and another 4% were unsure.
A survey released earlier this week by the Hobby School found Talarico with a two-point edge over Paxton among all likely voters in the state, 48% to 46%.
Similarly, 66% of rural voters support Republican Greg Abbott in the race for governor, compared with 29% who support Democrat Gina Hinojosa. Libertarian Pat Dixon had 2%, and 3% were unsure. Abbott was up by three points in the statewide survey.
Ren茅e Cross, professor of practice and senior executive director of the Hobby School, said the survey found Texans living outside the state鈥檚 populous urban and suburban areas remain loyal to the Republican party, even in a year predicted to be a wave for Democratic candidates.
鈥淲hile urban and suburban areas clearly have more voters, rural Texas remains a key constituency for the Republican party,鈥� Cross said. 鈥淭wo-thirds of rural voters said they have a favorable impression of Donald Trump, which is 21 percentage points higher than the 46% statewide who reported a favorable impression of the president. Yet rural voters aren鈥檛 a monolith 鈥� young voters and independent voters in rural areas are more likely to support Democratic candidates than their neighbors.鈥�
Among rural voters ages 18-34, for example, Cross said 50% support Hinojosa, while just over one-third (36%) support Abbott.
The Democratic candidates had solid leads among Latino voters statewide, reversing a trend from 2024 when Trump garnered about 55% of the state鈥檚 Latino vote.
Mark P. Jones, political science fellow at the Rice University Baker Institute for Public Policy and senior research fellow at the Hobby School, said the Democratic candidates鈥� healthy lead among urban and suburban Latinos helped to overcome the Republican preference of Latino voters living in rural areas.
鈥淭alarico has an 11-point lead over Paxton among Latino voters, 52% to 41%,鈥� Jones said. 鈥淭hat鈥檚 despite the fact that rural Latinos prefer Paxton 56% to 24%.鈥�
In the governor鈥檚 race, Hinojosa leads Abbott by 10 points among Latinos throughout the state, 53% to 43%. Rural Latinos favor Abbott 60% to 36%, Jones noted, while urban Latinos favor Hinojosa 58% to 41%.
Democrat Vikki Goodwin leads Republican Dan Patrick among all Latino voters, 46% to 41%, in the lieutenant governor鈥檚 race. Libertarian Anthony Cristo had 3%, Green Party candidate Kevin McCormick had 2%, and 8% were unsure. Among urban Latinos, Goodwin has a 12-point lead, 49% to 37%; among rural Latinos, Patrick has a 24-point lead, 58% to 34%.
Among the survey鈥檚 other findings:
- 57% of Latino voters said they have an unfavorable opinion of Donald Trump, while 43% have a favorable opinion.
- In the U.S. Senate race, the candidates are deadlocked among independent rural voters, 48% of whom support Talarico, compared with 44% for Paxton.
- 48% of rural independent voters support Hinojosa, compared with 41% for Abbott. And 43% of rural independent voters support Goodwin, compared with 40% for Patrick.
The full report is available on the Hobby School website. The 2026 general election survey was fielded between Oct. 10-14, 2026, and included separate sample populations of 750 rural Texans (margin of error of +/- 3.58 %) and of 500 Latino Texans (margin of error of +/- 4.18%).
A future report will cover attitudes about data centers and the possibility of a National Hockey League team and hockey arena in Harris County. Previous reports covered Harris County elections, statewide elections and the race for Texas Congressional District 9.