Key Takeaways
- Democrat James Talarico holds a two-point lead in the race for U.S. Senate with 48% of the vote, compared with 46% for Republican Ken Paxton.
- Republican incumbent Greg Abbott is leading in the race for governor with 49% of the vote, compared with 46% for Democrat Gina Hinojosa.
- Republican incumbent Dan Patrick is leading in the race for lieutenant governor with 47% of the vote, compared with 42% for Democrat Vikki Goodwin.
- Independent voters and Hispanic voters appear to be easing off their strong support for Republican candidates as seen in 2024. Rural voters remain staunchly Republican.
Democrat James Talarico holds a narrow lead over Republican Ken Paxton in the race for U.S. Senate, while Republican candidates in other statewide races hold small leads in what is shaping up to be an unusually tight election.
A survey of likely Texas voters by the 91视频 Hobby School of Public Affairs found Talarico with a two-point lead, supported by 48% of voters, compared with 46% for Paxton. Libertarian Ted Brown drew 3%, and 3% were unsure.
In the race for governor, Republican Greg Abbott, who has held the office since 2015, leads Democrat Gina Hinojosa by three points, 49% to 46%. Libertarian Pat Dixon had 2%, and 3% were unsure.
The incumbent Republican lieutenant governor, Dan Patrick, leads Democrat Vikki Goodwin by five points, 47% to 42%. Libertarian Anthony Cristo had 3%, Green Party candidate Kevin McCormick had 1%, and 7% were unsure.
In several other close statewide contests 鈥� for railroad commissioner, land commissioner, agriculture commissioner and comptroller 鈥� at least 10% of likely voters remain unsure of their choice.
Early voting starts Oct. 19, with the election set for Nov. 3.
Ren茅e Cross, researcher and senior executive director of the Hobby School, said voters are in a sour mood, unhappy with politicians from both parties and with the direction the state and nation are headed. Still, she said, statewide races remain too close to tell if that dissatisfaction will translate into Democratic gains across the state.
鈥淗igh gas and diesel prices, inflation at the grocery store and an unpopular war all have created headwinds for Republicans. More than half of Texans say they have an unfavorable opinion of President Trump, just two years after he carried the state by more than 13 points. But it has been more than 30 years since a Democrat was elected to statewide office in Texas, and many voters remain loyal to the Republican party.鈥�
- Renee Cross, executive director of the Hobby School
Democratic candidates have courted independents and disaffected Republicans, and the survey found that may be paying off, at least to some extent. In the race for Senate, for example, 60% of independents support Talarico, compared with 32% for Paxton. In the governor鈥檚 race, 55% of independents support Hinojosa, compared with 36% for Abbott.
Mark P. Jones, political science fellow at the Rice University Baker Institute for Public Policy and senior research fellow at the Hobby School, said Hispanic voters and young voters also support Democratic candidates across the board, although 40% or more of Hispanic voters support GOP candidates.
鈥淲e found about 55% of white voters supported the Republican candidates in these statewide races, and that rose to 59% for Gov. Abbott,鈥� Jones said. 鈥淎bout 80% or more of Black voters supported the Democratic candidate. But the Latino vote is more nuanced, trending toward Democrats but still offering sizeable GOP support, in line with what we tended to see in elections prior to 2024.鈥�
In the Senate race, 54% of Hispanics supported Talarico, compared with 40% for Paxton. Just over half of Hispanic voters, or 51%, backed Hinojosa in the governor鈥檚 race, with 42% for Abbott. Jones noted that Trump captured about 55% of the Hispanic vote in Texas in 2024.
Geography will also play a role 鈥� while Democratic candidates handily captured the urban vote, including 60% of urban voters who support Talarico 鈥� suburban and, especially, rural voters lean Republican.
鈥淕ov. Abbott has a more than two-to-one advantage with rural voters, with support from 66%, while just 27% support Gina Hinojosa,鈥� Cross said. 鈥淭urnout will be key in determining the outcome of these close races.鈥�
Other major findings
- 54% of Texas voters have an unfavorable opinion of President Donald Trump, while 46% have a favorable opinion.
- In the race for attorney general, Republican Mayes Middleton is leading Democrat Nathan Johnson 47% to 42%. Libertarian Tom Oxford has 3%, and 8% are unsure.
- In the race for Texas Railroad Commissioner, Republican Bo French is leading Democrat Jon Rosenthal, 45% to 43%. Libertarian Arthur DiBianca has 2%, and 10% are unsure.
- In the race for comptroller, Republican Don Huffines is leading Democrat Sarah Eckhardt, 47% to 40%. Libertarian Alonzo Echavarria-Garza has 2%, and 11% are unsure.
- For land commissioner, incumbent Republican Dawn Buckingham has support from 47% of likely voters, while Democrat Benjamin Flores has 40%. Libertarian Neill Snider has 2%, and 11% are unsure.
- In the race for agriculture commissioner, Republican Nate Sheets is leading Democrat Clayton Tucker, 46% to 40%. Libertarian Austin Kelly has 2%, and 12% are unsure.
- 55% said Texas is headed in the wrong direction, while 59% said the same about the United States.
The full report is available on the Hobby School website. The 2026 general election survey was fielded between October 10 and October 14, 2026, and included 2,000 participants across Texas. The margin of error is +/- 2.19%. Future reports will cover Latino and rural voters, attitudes about data centers and the possibility of a National Hockey League team and hockey arena in Harris County. Previous reports covered Harris County elections and the race for Texas Congressional District 9.